Huobi’s Du Jun expects a bear market to last until the next Bitcoin halving event
He explained that previous price patterns show that bull runs usually succeed halving events
Du Jun, the co-founder of digital assets exchange Huobi has predicted that Bitcoin could hold out on a bull market, at least until late 2024 when ‘halving’ occurs next.
Speaking to CNBC, Jun observed that a bull run for the world’s top digital asset has historically been accompanied by halving. Halving is an event written into Bitcoin’s fundamental code during which the rewards to Bitcoin miners are cut by half.
In reference, the Huobi co-founder noted that Bitcoin’s last two occurrences of all-time high Bitcoin prices had followed a halving event. Last year, Bitcoin peaked above $68,000 in November, which followed a halving event on May 11, 2020. At the time, the ‘reigning’ all-time high had been achieved in December 2017 (when Bitcoin topped $19,000), which had also followed July 9, 2016, halving.
With this argument, Jun said that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, adding that if these past patterns are anything to go by, then the earliest Bitcoin could mount a historic bullish charge is late 2024, if not at the start of 2025.
Currently, the coin is down 43% from the November 10 historic summit, as it attempts to regain stability post the January woes.
“If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market,” Du said.
Du Jun, however, cautioned that many influencing factors could swing Bitcoin’s price levels in unexpected ways, which make it difficult to predict the price accurately.
“It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market,” he said.